MIN⇄SDP

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$57.6M net +7.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$59.2M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 8.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2002 odds 57% → 53% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason BartlettSS·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$59.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 8.2

Prior

#390 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$57.6M net -7.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2002 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BuchananOF·28y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#24 overall draft pick → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.