MIN⇄SFG

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net +$8.0M net +1.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1990 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ed GustafsonP

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#464 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Al Rosen net −$8.0M net -1.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.6 ± 4 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1990 odds 8% → 9% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Francisco OliverasP·27y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.6± 4 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.