PHI⇄CIN

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1989 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff GrayP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Murray Cook net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $32M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 4.0 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1989 odds 4% → 4% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob SebraP·27y·R/R

+$15.1M+$15.1M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 4.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.32/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.