TOR⇄STL

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$23.2M net +1.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $19M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 5.1 ± 2 expected · 5.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2008 odds 48% → 36% (-12.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott Rolen3B·33y·R/R

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 5.1± 2 exp WARrealized 5.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

3.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$23.2M net -1.2

received −$24.0M−$24.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 3.5 ± 2 expected · 4.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2008 odds 44% → 57% (+12.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Troy Glaus3B·31y·R/R

−$24.2M−$24.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 3.5± 2 exp WARrealized 4.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.35/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.