CHC⇄PHI

CHCCHC Larry Himes net +$8.8M net +3.1

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $36M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1994 odds 2% → 3% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin FosterP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

#745 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net −$8.8M net -3.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1994 odds 3% → 2% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn BoskieP·27y·R/R

+$0.1M+$0.1M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.