LAD⇄MIA

LADLAD Dan Evans net −$4.0M net +0.6

received +$3.2M−$6.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2004 odds 62% → 65% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan EncarnaciónOF·28y·R/R

+$3.5M−$6.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$4.0M net -0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2004 odds 20% → 18% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Travis EziCF·22y·S/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#357 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.