PIT⇄SEA

PITPIT Syd Thrift net +$5.6M net +0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1987 odds 38% → 39% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob Siegel

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Dick Balderson net −$5.6M net -0.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $51M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.6 ± 6 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1987 odds 17% → 16% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rich Renteria2B/3B·25y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $51M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.6± 6 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.