SDP⇄NYM

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$52.0M net +6.3

received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $20M expected surplus · +$52.0M realized received 4.5 ± 2 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2006 odds 32% → 56% (+24.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike CameronOF·33y·R/R

+$27.8M+$27.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$52.0M 4.5± 2 exp WARrealized 6.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

3.07/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$52.0M net -6.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2006 odds 84% → 66% (-18.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Xavier NadyOF·27y·R/R

+$5.2M+$5.2M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.