NYM⇄ARI

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net +$24.8M net +3.1

received −$9.6M−$9.6M ± $0M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2006 odds 57% → 66% (+9.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando HernándezP·40y·R/R

−$9.8M−$9.8M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.47/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$24.8M net -3.1

received +$0.0M−$7.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2006 odds 9% → 6% (-2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge JulioP·27y·R/R

−$0.2M−$7.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.