BOS⇄SFG

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$7.2M net +0.4

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $34M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1987 odds 28% → 27% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy KutcherOF·27y·R/R

+$19.5M+$19.5M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 3.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Al Rosen net −$7.2M net -0.4

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $49M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 3.2 ± 6 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1987 odds 52% → 54% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave HendersonOF·28y·R/R

+$16.8M+$16.8M± $49M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 3.2± 6 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.