COL⇄MIA

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2011 odds 2% → 3% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesus Merchan

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2011 odds 6% → 5% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alfredo AmézagaOF·33y·B/R

+$2.1M+$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.