NYY⇄COL

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$20.8M net +3.2

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $24M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2019 odds 72% → 84% (+11.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike TauchmanOF·28y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

#289 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net −$20.8M net -3.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2019 odds 1% → 0% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phillip DiehlP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#818 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.