WSN⇄PIT

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jarrod Patterson3B·26y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#556 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Cam Bonifay net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt SkrmettaP·27y·B/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#725 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.