STL⇄SFG

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$8.0M net +4.9

received +$18.4M+$18.4M ± $41M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 4.5 ± 5 expected · 5.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1996 odds 19% → 25% (+6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Royce ClaytonSS·26y·R/R

+$16.4M+$16.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 3.2± 4 exp WARrealized 5.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.62/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris Wimmer2B·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#215 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Bob Quinn net −$8.0M net -4.9

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $32M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 3.6 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1996 odds 2% → 2% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Allen WatsonP·25y·L/L

+$13.6M+$13.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#21 overall draft pick → 0.42/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Doug CreekP·27y·L/L

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

#149 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Rich DeLuciaP·31y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.