NYM⇄BAL

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $4M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Juan Aracena

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Syd Thrift net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $17M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Anthony ShumakerP·27y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#633 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.