CIN⇄BOS

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1999 odds 66% → 67% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pat FluryP·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#189 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1999 odds 82% → 81% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jon NunnallyOF·27y·L/R

+$10.6M+$10.6M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.