TOR⇄PIT

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$206.4M net +36.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$204.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 36.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2008 odds 37% → 36% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José BautistaOF·27y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$204.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 36.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$206.4M net -36.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2008 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robinzon DíazC·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.