ATL⇄NYY

ATLATL John Mullen net −$4.0M net +0.5

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1986 odds 1% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy SampleOF·31y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.43 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Clyde King net +$4.0M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1986 odds 65% → 62% (-2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel Sosa

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.