WSN⇄LAD

WSNWSN Kevin Malone net +$30.4M net +3.8

received −$2.4M−$3.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1995 odds 5% → 5% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Treadway2B·32y·L/R

+$0.8M+$0.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Henry RodríguezOF·27y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$10.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

-0.46/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$30.4M net -3.8

received +$12.8M+$10.4M ± $31M expected surplus · −$23.2M realized received 4.5 ± 4 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1995 odds 38% → 36% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roberto KellyOF·30y·R/R

+$6.8M+$4.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$21.6M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.68/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Joey EischenP·25y·L/L

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

Composite #40.0 pedigree (Baseball America #40 (1994)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.38/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.