WSN⇄CLE

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$0.0M net +0.4

received +$14.4M+$13.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1994 odds 91% → 92% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy Milligan1B·32y·R/R

+$14.6M+$13.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.04/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net +$0.0M net -0.4

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1994 odds 86% → 84% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BarnesP·27y·L/L

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.