WSN⇄SFG

WSNWSN Kevin Malone net +$3.2M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1995 odds 5% → 5% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lou PoteP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#770 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Bob Quinn net −$3.2M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1995 odds 9% → 8% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis AquinoP·31y·R/R

+$2.3M+$1.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.