PHI⇄TOR

PHIPHI Ed Wade net +$0.0M net +0.2

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob DuceyOF·35y·L/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.7 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Gord Ash net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2000 odds 18% → 17% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mickey Morandini2B·34y·L/R

+$2.2M+$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.74/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.