LAD⇄CIN

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Will BrunsonP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#577 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ben VanRynP·23y·L/L

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.