SEA⇄CIN

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$0.8M net +0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $9M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Todd WilliamsP·28y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#1314 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $24M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kerry RobinsonOF·25y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#939 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -5.7/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.