SFG⇄MIA

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$20.8M net +0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2007 odds 3% → 3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy MessengerP·25y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#326 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net −$20.8M net -0.3

received −$16.8M−$17.6M ± $7M expected surplus · −$20.8M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2007 odds 6% → 5% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Armando BenítezP·34y·R/R

−$16.9M−$17.7M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$20.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.