SDP⇄BOS

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$4.0M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Luis Cruz3B/SS·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Mike Port net −$4.0M net -0.6

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $27M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

César Crespo2B/OF·24y·B/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#90 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.