CIN⇄BAL

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$12.8M net +2.9

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $49M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 3.7 ± 6 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1998 odds 7% → 8% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeffrey HammondsOF·27y·R/R

+$19.7M+$19.7M± $49M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 3.7± 6 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.38/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.75/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Pat Gillick net −$12.8M net -2.9

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $38M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1998 odds 51% → 48% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willie Greene3B·26y·L/R

+$11.7M+$11.7M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.89/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.