WSN⇄SDP

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$20.8M net +5.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1993 odds 11% → 14% (+2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim ScottP·26y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net −$20.8M net -5.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $25M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · -3.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1993 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Archi Cianfrocco1B/3B·26y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized -3.0

Prior

#122 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.