DET⇄SEA

DETDET Bill Lajoie net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $49M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Karl BestP·28y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $49M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Dick Balderson net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Bryan KellyP·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.