BOS⇄SEA

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$12.0M net +2.2

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $34M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 3.1 ± 4 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1994 odds 3% → 3% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lee TinsleyOF·25y·B/R

+$15.4M+$15.4M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 3.1± 4 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#11 overall draft pick → 0.66/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$12.0M net -2.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1994 odds 24% → 21% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim Smith

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.