SDP⇄COL

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$4.0M net +1.5

received −$5.6M−$5.6M ± $6M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1998 odds 32% → 33% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John Vander WalOF·32y·L/L

−$5.9M−$5.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net −$4.0M net -1.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1998 odds 6% → 6% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin Burford1B·20y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#166 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.