SFG⇄PIT

SFGSFG Al Rosen net +$16.0M net +8.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $35M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 1.6 ± 4 expected · 7.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1987 odds 48% → 54% (+5.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Don RobinsonP·30y·R/R

+$5.6M+$5.6M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 7.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Syd Thrift net −$16.0M net -8.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1987 odds 44% → 39% (-5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mackey SasserC·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.