COL⇄TEX

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net −$1.6M net +0.7

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.4 ± 2 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2017 odds 12% → 13% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonathan LucroyC·31y·R/R

+$22.6M+$22.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 3.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.0/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.43/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$1.6M net -0.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2017 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro González2B·79y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.