ARI⇄NYM

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$0.8M net +0.5

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $11M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2023 odds 11% → 12% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy PhamOF·35y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Billy Eppler net +$0.8M net -0.5

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2023 odds 6% → 6% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeremy RodriguezSS·16y·L/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

MLB Pipeline intl top-50 #47 signee (2023) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.