MIN⇄PHI

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$12.0M net +0.5

received +$56.0M+$56.0M ± $46M expected surplus · +$34.4M realized received 8.4 ± 6 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2013 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vance WorleyP·25y·R/R

+$48.9M+$48.9M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 7.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#102 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Trevor MayP·23y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$36.0M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

Composite #69.0 prospect (Baseball America #69 (2012)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net −$12.0M net -0.5

received +$36.0M+$36.0M ± $42M expected surplus · +$22.4M realized received 6.5 ± 5 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2013 odds 1% → 1% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben RevereOF·25y·L/R

+$35.7M+$35.7M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 6.5± 5 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.