TEX⇄CIN

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$1.6M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $13M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1995 odds 6% → 7% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Craig Worthington3B·30y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$1.6M net -0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1995 odds 85% → 83% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Stephen Larkin1B·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#281 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.