WSN⇄LAD

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$200.0M net +16.5

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $50M expected surplus · +$201.6M realized received 4.8 ± 6 expected · 19.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1994 odds 86% → 92% (+5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro MartínezP·22y·R/R

+$19.6M+$19.6M± $50M exp surplusrealized +$201.6M 4.8± 6 exp WARrealized 19.2

Prior

Composite #62.0 pedigree (Baseball America #62 (1993)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.95/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$200.0M net -16.5

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $27M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 5.1 ± 3 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1994 odds 15% → 9% (-6.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Delino DeShields2B·25y·L/R

+$33.6M+$33.6M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 5.1± 3 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.56/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.