MIL⇄KCR⇄TEX⇄NYM

MILMIL Harry Dalton net +$48.8M net +3.5

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $37M expected surplus · +$40.8M realized received 1.8 ± 5 expected · 6.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1985 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim LearyP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Bill Hance

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Danny DarwinP·29y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.47 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net −$1.6M net +0.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1985 odds 34% → 31% (-3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim SundbergC·34y·R/R

−$0.4M−$0.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

2.2 control yrs × 0.45 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$26.4M net -1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1985 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Don SlaughtC·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net −$20.8M net -3.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1985 odds 72% → 70% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Frank WillsP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.