LAD⇄BAL

LADLAD Kevin Malone net +$21.6M net +1.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2000 odds 38% → 43% (+5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alberto ReyesP·30y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Syd Thrift net −$21.6M net -1.7

received −$15.2M−$15.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$22.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2000 odds 4% → 4% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alan MillsP·33y·R/R

−$15.3M−$15.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$22.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -1.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

-0.23/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.