TOR⇄NYM

TORTOR Gord Ash net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $4M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2000 odds 17% → 17% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerson Perez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2000 odds 57% → 57% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim MannP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#1466 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.