CIN⇄KCR

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$4.8M net +0.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Cary AmmonsP·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#317 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$4.8M net -0.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $27M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Donnie Sadler2B/OF·26y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.