STL⇄WSN

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$32.0M net +3.9

received +$18.4M+$3.2M ± $21M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 3.5 ± 3 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2001 odds 51% → 61% (+9.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dustin HermansonP·28y·R/R

+$14.9M−$0.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.50/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.66/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Steve KlineP·28y·B/L

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$32.0M net -3.9

received +$32.8M+$32.8M ± $37M expected surplus · −$45.6M realized received 7.1 ± 5 expected · -1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fernando Tatís3B·26y·R/R

+$24.0M+$24.0M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$48.8M 4.6± 4 exp WARrealized -2.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.53/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Britt ReamesP·27y·R/R

+$8.9M+$8.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#463 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.