COL⇄BOS

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$28.0M net +0.1

received +$4.0M+$0.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2000 odds 6% → 10% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John WasdinP·27y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff Frye2B·33y·R/R

+$1.3M−$1.5M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Brian RoseP·24y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

Composite #22.0 pedigree (Baseball America #22 (1998)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff Taglienti

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$28.0M net -0.1

received −$8.8M−$8.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$32.8M realized received 4.9 ± 4 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2000 odds 36% → 26% (-9.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rolando ArrojoP·34y·R/R

+$18.8M+$18.8M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

Composite #37.0 pedigree (Baseball America #37 (1998)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.29/yr blended

Horizon

2.2 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Rich CroushoreP·29y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.69 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike Lansing2B·32y·R/R

−$30.3M−$30.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$43.2M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.