RRosternomics
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Pirates PIT

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GM: Ben Cherington

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.3× league · TAB -7.8
-7.8TAB — talent above budget
-15.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
0.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
80%dead money %27th/30
0.317win %30th/30
4.4roster fWAR29th/30
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$36Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFCole Tucker 20GBryan Reynolds 17GAnthony Alford 6G
LFBryan Reynolds 37GAdam Frazier 14GAnthony Alford 6G
RFGregory Polanco 39GCole Tucker 16GJosé Osuna 7G
SSErik González 38GKevin Newman 23GJT Riddle 3G
2BAdam Frazier 41GKevin Newman 20GJT Riddle 1G
3BKe'Bryan Hayes 24GErik González 13GJT Riddle 11G
1BJosh Bell 35GColin Moran 22GJosé Osuna 9G
STARTERSJoe Musgrove 1.0WARSteven Brault 0.8WARJT Brubaker 0.7WARChad Kuhl 0.0WARMitch Keller -0.2WAR
CJacob Stallings 42GJohn Ryan Murphy 23GAndrew Susac 1G
DHColin Moran 26GJosh Bell 21GGregory Polanco 8G
BULLPEN★ Richard Rodríguez 4svChris Stratton 5hGeoff Hartlieb 5hSam Howard 4hNik Turley 3hAustin Davis 1hDovydas Neverauskas 0hTyler Bashlor 0h
CJacob Stallings 42 · John Ryan Murphy 23 · Andrew Susac 1
1BJosh Bell 35 · Colin Moran 22 · José Osuna 9
2BAdam Frazier 41 · Kevin Newman 20 · JT Riddle 1
3BKe'Bryan Hayes 24 · Erik González 13 · JT Riddle 11
SSErik González 38 · Kevin Newman 23 · JT Riddle 3
LFBryan Reynolds 37 · Adam Frazier 14 · Anthony Alford 6
CFCole Tucker 20 · Bryan Reynolds 17 · Anthony Alford 6
RFGregory Polanco 39 · Cole Tucker 16 · José Osuna 7
DHColin Moran 26 · Josh Bell 21 · Gregory Polanco 8
SPJoe Musgrove 1.0 · Steven Brault 0.8 · JT Brubaker 0.7 · Chad Kuhl 0.0 · Mitch Keller -0.2
BP★ Richard Rodríguez 4 · Chris Stratton 5 · Geoff Hartlieb 5 · Sam Howard 4 · Nik Turley 3 · Austin Davis 1 · Dovydas Neverauskas 0 · Tyler Bashlor 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ke'Bryan Hayes 23 – 241.9 0.1 +13.8
Joe Musgrove 27 arb 81.0 2.8 +4.7
Jacob Stallings 30 pre-arb 421.0 0.2 +7.0
Steven Brault 28 pre-arb 110.8 0.2 +5.8
Colin Moran 27 pre-arb 520.8 0.2 +5.6
JT Brubaker 26 – 110.7 0.2 +5.2
Adam Frazier 28 arb 580.7 2.8 +2.4
Chris Stratton 29 pre-arb 270.6 0.2 +4.1
Richard Rodríguez 30 pre-arb 240.6 0.2 +3.9
Phillip Evans 27 pre-arb 110.4 0.2 +2.6
Nick Tropeano 29 arb 70.3 0.1 +2.1
Bryan Reynolds 25 pre-arb 550.2 0.2 +1.5
Erik González 28 arb 500.2 0.7 +0.9
Nik Turley 30 pre-arb 250.2 0.2 +1.3
Kyle Crick 27 pre-arb 70.1 0.2 +0.9
Blake Cederlind 24 – 50.1 0.0 +0.6
Austin Davis↔ PHI 27 pre-arb 50.1 0.0 +0.5
Nick Burdi 27 pre-arb 40.1 0.2 +0.3
Sam Howard 27 pre-arb 220.1 0.2 +0.2
Guillermo Heredia↔ NYM 29 arb 80.1 0.3 +0.1
Robbie Erlin↔ ATL 29 – 20.0 0.1 +0.3
Clay Holmes 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.2 +0.1
Brandon Waddell 26 – 20.0 0.1 +0.2
Chad Kuhl 27 arb 110.0 0.8 -0.6
Yacksel Ríos 27 pre-arb 30.0 0.2 +0.1
Andrew Susac 30 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Anthony Alford↔ TOR 25 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Keone Kela 27 arb 3-0.1 3.7 -4.3
Nick Mears 23 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Will Craig 25 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.7
Jason Martin 24 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.8
Michael Feliz 27 arb 3-0.1 1.1 -1.8
Geoff Hartlieb 26 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.2 -0.9
Jared Oliva 24 – 6-0.1 0.0 -0.9
John Ryan Murphy 29 – 25-0.1 0.2 -1.2
José Osuna 27 pre-arb 26-0.2 0.2 -1.3
Dovydas Neverauskas 27 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.2 -1.4
Tyler Bashlor 27 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Jarrod Dyson↔ CHW 35 FA-elig 21-0.2 1.3 -2.9
Miguel Del Pozo 27 – 5-0.2 0.0 -1.6
Mitch Keller 24 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.2 -1.9
Cody Ponce 26 – 5-0.2 0.1 -1.8
Derek Holland 33 FA-elig 12-0.3 0.1 -1.9
Trevor Williams 28 arb 11-0.3 2.8 -5.4
Josh Bell 27 arb 57-0.4 4.8 -7.5
Kevin Newman 26 pre-arb 44-0.5 0.2 -3.5
Cole Tucker 23 pre-arb 37-0.5 0.2 -4.1
Gregory Polanco 28 FA-elig 50-0.7 8.6 -13.7
JT Riddle 28 arb 23-0.9 0.8 -7.8

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Ke'Bryan Hayes1.9
JT Brubaker0.7
Phillip Evans0.4
Nick Tropeano0.3
Nik Turley0.2
Blake Cederlind0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Corey Dickerson0.9
Jordan Lyles0.7
Francisco Liriano0.4
Wei-Chung Wang0.0
Yefry Ramírez-0.0
Steven Baron-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$36.0M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Jarrod Dyson358.088$1.3MFREE AGENT
John Ryan Murphy297.000$213kFREE AGENT
JT Brubaker266.162$209kFREE AGENT
Derek Holland3310.105$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Gregory Polanco285.103$8.6MFREE AGENT
Josh Bell273.053$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keone Kela275.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Trevor Williams283.027$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Musgrove273.063$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Frazier283.075$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Feliz273.169$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Kuhl273.079$840kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik González283.007$725kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Heredia293.053$301kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Tropeano293.105$114kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Erlin295.078$64kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
JT Riddle282.118$850kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Rodríguez302.016$235kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Moran272.107$220kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Brault282.085$219kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Crick272.104$219kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Reynolds250.163$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Newman261.046$218kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Stratton292.100$218kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Stallings301.149$217kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Holmes271.031$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Keller240.059$214kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Tucker230.080$214kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Burdi272.000$213kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dovydas Neverauskas270.170$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nik Turley300.143$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Evans270.110$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geoff Hartlieb260.093$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos271.036$178kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Howard270.102$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Osuna272.069$160kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Bashlor271.003$128kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ke'Bryan Hayes230.000$84kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Martin240.058$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Waddell260.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ponce260.000$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Cederlind240.000$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Davis270.166$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Del Pozo27–$37k
Nick Mears230.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Alford250.142$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Oliva240.000$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Craig250.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Susac302.009$3kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Pirates 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.