RRosternomics
𝕏

Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.21× league · TAB +8.4
+8.4TAB — talent above budget
+10.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
60%dead money %23rd/30
0.583win %6th/30
16.7roster fWAR6th/30
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$143Mpayroll $M8th/30

2020: made playoffs · 35–25. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFEnder Inciarte 46GRonald Acuña Jr. 34GAdam Duvall 1G
LFAdam Duvall 45GMarcell Ozuna 19GNick Markakis 7G
RFNick Markakis 29GRonald Acuña Jr. 28GAdam Duvall 17G
SSDansby Swanson 60GAdeiny Hechavarría 4G
2BOzzie Albies 29GJohan Camargo 21GAdeiny Hechavarría 12G
3BAustin Riley 46GJohan Camargo 10GAdeiny Hechavarría 8G
1BFreddie Freeman 58GCharlie Culberson 4GAustin Riley 4G
STARTERSMax Fried 1.5WARIan Anderson 1.1WARJosh Tomlin 0.4WARHuascar Ynoa 0.0WARKyle Wright -0.2WAR
CTravis d'Arnaud 35GTyler Flowers 22GAlex Jackson 4G
DHMarcell Ozuna 39GMatt Adams 11GTravis d'Arnaud 7G
BULLPEN★ Mark Melancon 11svShane Greene 9hChris Martin 6hA.J. Minter 5hDarren O'Day 2hTyler Matzek 1hLuke Jackson 1hGrant Dayton 0h
CTravis d'Arnaud 35 · Tyler Flowers 22 · Alex Jackson 4
1BFreddie Freeman 58 · Charlie Culberson 4 · Austin Riley 4
2BOzzie Albies 29 · Johan Camargo 21 · Adeiny Hechavarría 12
3BAustin Riley 46 · Johan Camargo 10 · Adeiny Hechavarría 8
SSDansby Swanson 60 · Adeiny Hechavarría 4
LFAdam Duvall 45 · Marcell Ozuna 19 · Nick Markakis 7
CFEnder Inciarte 46 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 34 · Adam Duvall 1
RFNick Markakis 29 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 28 · Adam Duvall 17
DHMarcell Ozuna 39 · Matt Adams 11 · Travis d'Arnaud 7
SPMax Fried 1.5 · Ian Anderson 1.1 · Josh Tomlin 0.4 · Huascar Ynoa 0.0 · Kyle Wright -0.2
BP★ Mark Melancon 11 · Shane Greene 9 · Chris Martin 6 · A.J. Minter 5 · Darren O'Day 2 · Tyler Matzek 1 · Luke Jackson 1 · Grant Dayton 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Freddie Freeman 30 FA-elig 603.0 22.0 -0.2
Marcell Ozuna 29 FA-elig 602.7 18.0 +1.5
Ronald Acuña Jr. 22 pre-arb 462.2 1.0 +15.0
Dansby Swanson 26 arb 602.1 3.1 +11.9
Travis d'Arnaud 31 FA-elig 441.9 8.0 +5.9
Max Fried 26 pre-arb 111.5 0.2 +10.9
Ian Anderson 22 – 61.1 0.1 +7.8
Adam Duvall 31 FA-elig 571.0 3.2 +4.0
Tyler Matzek 29 pre-arb 210.8 0.2 +5.5
Ozzie Albies 23 arb 290.7 1.0 +4.1
Chris Martin 34 FA-elig 190.5 7.0 -3.5
A.J. Minter 26 pre-arb 220.4 0.2 +3.0
Josh Tomlin 35 FA-elig 170.4 0.1 +3.1
Shane Greene 31 FA-elig 280.3 6.2 -3.8
Tyler Flowers 34 FA-elig 220.3 4.0 -1.6
Darren O'Day 37 FA-elig 190.3 2.2 +0.1
Mark Melancon 35 FA-elig 230.3 10.2 -8.2
Michael Soroka 22 pre-arb 30.3 0.2 +1.7
Bryse Wilson 22 pre-arb 60.2 0.1 +1.3
Grant Dayton 32 arb 180.1 0.7 +0.3
Jacob Webb 26 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.9
Cole Hamels 36 FA-elig 10.1 18.0 -17.3
Luke Jackson 28 arb 190.1 1.8 -1.2
Johan Camargo 26 arb 350.1 1.7 -1.2
Austin Riley 23 pre-arb 510.1 0.2 +0.3
William Contreras 22 – 40.0 0.0 +0.3
Pablo Sandoval↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 10.0 0.0 +0.2
Chad Sobotka 26 pre-arb 40.0 0.0 +0.1
Alex Jackson 24 pre-arb 50.0 0.0 +0.0
Nick Markakis 36 FA-elig 370.0 4.0 -3.9
Huascar Ynoa 22 pre-arb 90.0 0.2 -0.1
Scott Schebler 29 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Cristian Pache 21 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Patrick Weigel 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Charlie Culberson 31 FA-elig 10-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Jhoulys Chacín 32 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.1 -0.8
Chris Rusin 33 arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.8
Adeiny Hechavarría 31 FA-elig 27-0.1 1.0 -1.9
Kyle Wright 24 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.2 -1.3
Tucker Davidson 24 – 1-0.2 0.0 -1.2
Tommy Milone↔ BAL 33 FA-elig 3-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Sean Newcomb 27 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.1 -1.7
Mike Foltynewicz 28 FA-elig 1-0.3 6.4 -8.5
Robbie Erlin↔ PIT 29 – 7-0.3 0.2 -2.5
Touki Toussaint 24 pre-arb 7-0.4 0.1 -2.9
Matt Adams 31 – 16-0.4 0.2 -3.3
Will Smith 30 FA-elig 18-0.6 13.0 -17.1
Ender Inciarte 29 FA-elig 46-0.7 7.7 -12.5

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Marcell Ozuna2.7
Travis d'Arnaud1.9
Ian Anderson1.1
Tyler Matzek0.8
Cole Hamels0.1
William Contreras0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Josh Donaldson5.2
Julio Teheran1.4
Matt Joyce1.3
Kevin Gausman0.9
Brian McCann0.9
Dallas Keuchel0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$143.1M
2021 guaranteed
$3.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Freddie Freeman309.033$22.0MFREE AGENT
Cole Hamels3613.143$18.0MFREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna296.124$18.0MFREE AGENT
Will Smith308.000$13.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Melancon359.098$10.2MFREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud316.044$8.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Flowers348.148$4.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Markakis3614.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day3711.103$2.2MFREE AGENT
Adeiny Hechavarría317.037$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ozzie Albies232.062$1.0M$3.0M$5.0M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0MCLUB
Matt Adams317.033$210kFREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin359.033$100kFREE AGENT
Jhoulys Chacín329.054$88kFREE AGENT
Tommy Milone336.113$70kFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval3311.042$3kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Ender Inciarte295.157$7.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Foltynewicz284.134$6.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Greene315.075$6.2MFREE AGENT
Adam Duvall313.150$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson263.047$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Jackson283.019$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant Dayton323.007$655kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Erlin295.078$226kFREE AGENT
Charlie Culberson314.084$100kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin335.010$10kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Chris Martin342.133$7.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Camargo262.136$1.7MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Acuña Jr.222.000$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Soroka221.145$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Fried261.148$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Minter261.161$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Riley230.138$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Matzek290.144$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huascar Ynoa220.008$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Wright240.076$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Anderson220.000$106kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Touki Toussaint240.140$106kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson220.087$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb272.108$66kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Webb260.155$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Jackson240.040$47kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Schebler292.170$32kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Sobotka261.003$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Pache210.000$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
William Contreras220.000$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Weigel250.008$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Davidson240.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.