PHI⇄CHW

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$3.2M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1992 odds 6% → 6% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Keith ShepherdP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#264 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$3.2M net -0.3

received −$1.6M−$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1992 odds 44% → 43% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dale Sveum3B/SS·28y·B/R

−$1.7M−$2.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.