CIN⇄ATL

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$21.6M net +0.2

received +$57.6M+$57.6M ± $53M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 10.8 ± 7 expected · 5.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1999 odds 64% → 67% (+2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Denny NeagleP·30y·L/L

+$27.0M+$27.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 3.7± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.6/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.53/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Michael TuckerOF·28y·L/R

+$16.3M+$16.3M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 3.2± 4 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.05/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rob BellP·22y·R/R

+$14.5M+$14.5M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.9± 5 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

Composite #35.0 prospect (Baseball America #35 (1999)) → 0.71/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$21.6M net -0.2

received +$4.0M−$7.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · 4.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1999 odds 92% → 91% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike RemlingerP·33y·L/L

+$10.5M+$10.5M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 5.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.76/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Bret Boone2B·30y·R/R

−$6.3M−$17.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.