SEA⇄ATL

SEASEA Pat Gillick net +$5.6M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2002 odds 87% → 89% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Elvis PerezP·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#737 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$5.6M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2002 odds 52% → 47% (-4.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin GryboskiP·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#426 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.