CHW⇄BAL

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$0.8M net +0.2

received +$8.0M−$5.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2000 odds 51% → 56% (+4.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Charles JohnsonC·28y·R/R

+$14.4M+$0.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.11/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Harold BainesDH/OF·41y·L/L

−$6.2M−$6.2M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.57/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Syd Thrift net +$0.8M net -0.2

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $32M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 4.3 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2000 odds 4% → 4% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brook FordyceC·30y·R/R

+$7.8M+$7.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jason LakmanP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#196 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Miguel Felix

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Juan Figueroa

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.