SDP⇄NYM

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net +$1.6M net +1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Rich RodriguezP·26y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net −$1.6M net -1.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Bill StevensonIF

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#648 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brad Pounders

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.